EVs At 91.3% Share In Norway – Shrinking Auto Market

October saw plugin EVs at 91.3% share in Norway, up from 86.4% year on year. Full electrics took over 84% of the market. Overall auto volume was 8,925 units, down 29% year on year. Norway’s best selling vehicle in October was the Tesla Model Y.

October saw combined EVs at 91.3% share in Norway, comprising 84.2% full electrics (BEVs), and 7.1% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These compare with YoY figures of 86.4%, 77.5%, and 9.0%, respectively. BEVs have gained almost another 7% of the market over the past year, and PHEVs lost share, though not as rapidly as the other non-BEV powertrains.

In terms of volumes, against the broader market drop of 29%, BEVs were some 23% down YoY, to 7,516 units. PHEVs were down by 44%, to 635 units.

HEVs were halved to 489 units, diesel was at just 43% of YoY volume (198 units), and petrol, at just 87 units, was down to under a third of its October 2022 volume. This is the second consecutive month where petrol-only powertrains have seen under 100 sales — and under 1% market share — and they will continue to fade out from here.

Year to date cumulative share for plugins currently stands at 90.5%, with 83.5% BEVs. Expect those to hit 91% and 84% for full year 2023. In both cases, this will be around 4% to 5% more than 2022’s share. We are certainly around the top of the S-curve, though Norway’s current economic outlook is putting additional pressure on the curve at the moment.

Bestsellers

Albeit with volumes appropriate for a low-ebb logistics month, the Tesla Model Y once again took the overall bestseller spot in October, with 647 units. In close competition for second place were the Toyota BZ4X, and Skoda Enyaq.

Relatively strong performers in October were the Toyota BZ4X, Subaru Solterra, and the Hyundai Kona. Relatively weak performers included the two Teslas, the VW ID.4, Volvo XC40, Audi Q8 e-tron, and BMW i4. As usual, most of these month-to-month variations are down to shifting logistics choices of the manufacturers, rather than dramatic changes in consumer preference.

A few new models made Norwegian debuts this past month. The new Peugeot e-308 made its first appearance, though with just a single unit for now. The touring-wagon variant of the e-308 may attract some interest in Norway, with precious few other BEV options in this format.

Another newcomer was the Nio EL6, a mid-large SUV (4,854 mm), with slick styling and high performance. The price starts from 595,000 krona (€50,000) with battery owned (less if battery is leased), for the entry 70.5 kWh variant (WLTP 406 km). More expensive and longer range variants are also available. The EL6 saw an initial 9 units in October.

The Xpeng G9, which debuted in September with 12 units, stepped up to a strong 78 units in October. This is a close competitor to the Nio EL6 in size, format, and performance, but starts at an even lower price of 536,275 krona (€45,000).

Let’s now turn to the 3 month performance:

The Tesla Model Y still has a massive lead in Norway, with more sales over the trailing quarter than the next three runners up combined. The Model Y’s relative dominance over peers is roughly in line with the situation 3 months prior. Its year to date performance is even stronger, close to equalling the next 5 models combined.

The closest runners up over the most recent three months are the Skoda Enyaq, Toyota BZ4X, and Volkswagen ID.4. The Toyota has climbed strongly over the period, seeing volume more than double, while the ID.4 has lost more than half its prior volume.

Another notable performance came from the Mercedes EQE, which almost doubled its volume over the prior period, and entered the top 20 for the first time.

There’s no immediate prospect of newer models breaking into the top 20 in the coming couple of months, but let’s see if vehicles like the Jeep Avenger, Fisker Ocean, and Xpeng G9 can build on early acceptance to climb the Norwegian ranks over the medium term.

I am planning a dedicated article later this month giving an update on the fleet transition.

Outlook

Norway’s auto market volume is obviously in the doldrums, and the OFV is currently estimating a 25% volume drop in full year 2023. They say that “increased interest rates and strong inflation sting strongly for many. This has also been evident in the new car market for several months. Many are now very careful about prioritising new car purchases.” (OFV, machine translation).

Interest rates are currently 4.25% and have climbed continuously for the past two years. Headline inflation has cooled over recent months, but core inflation rates remain high at 5.7% in September, from 6.3% in August. Likewise, core consumer prices are still very high. Norway’s GDP growth fell to zero in July, from + 0.3% in April.

This reduction in consumer confidence will obviously slow down the transition of Norway’s fleet over to EVs. As usual, those who are still buying new cars still increasingly prefer BEVs over all other powertrains, but it may be a while before volumes return to the highs seen over the past couple of years.

What are your thoughts on Norway’s EV transition? Please jump in to the comments section below to join the discussion.